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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."